Hold This, Save This, Win This: How Stats Lie

Hold This, Save This, Win This

Statistics lie. You have heard it your whole life. No more so than in baseball, where a guy can throw 8 innings of two hit shutout ball, striking out ten, and come out of a game with a loss, 'cause the guy he left on first base came around to score when the reliever gave up a triple.

Today’s Marlin game exemplifies a sample statistical anomaly. Now it was not one of those games where a pitcher came in, picked a guy off, and his team got a run in the bottom of the inning so he won a game without ever throwing to a batter. But you have seen those. We all have.

Today I will turn to Andrew Miller, who comes into a 3-1 game in relief of Chris Volstad in the sixth inning. His first pitch to home plate is to Ryan Zimmerman, who rockets it off the left field wall for a double. The next batter, Adam Dunn, ropes a bullet at 200 mph down the first base line. Somehow, Cantu spears it, turning a triple into a near double play. Then Josh Willingham and Austin Kearn proceed to the plate, promptly walked on a series of pitches nowhere near the plate. Catcher John Baker saves two from reaching the backstop. Miller has loaded the bases in ninety seconds. Out to the mound comes Manager Fredi Gonzalez and out of the game comes the young left hander.

Kiko Calero comes into the game, and is as dominant as he was in Spring Training. He strikes out Belliard, and Bard pops to left. The Marlins hold the lead. Kiko always impressed me as a young Cardinal, and maintained excellence in Oakland. He will be a real find for the Fish this season.

It is now the bottom of the ninth, and the lead is 6-3. Matt Lindstrom comes in for his first save opportunity of the young season, his arm healed from the World Baseball Classic strain. He has a jaw-dropping, eye-popping fastball. We get to see it against Nick Johnson. Unfortunately, none of the pitches are near home plate. He walks on four. Uh-oh.

But Lindy comes back, getting Guzman on a 3-2 pitch to swing and miss. Thank guzness, Christian would swing at the kitchen sink if it were thrown at him. He goes to two strikes on Elijah Dukes and you feel good things happening, until Elijah laces a rocket into left center for a base hit. The ball came into the plate at 98 mph. It was hit back at 125 per. Not looking good. Zimmerman now up, a slow chopper to Uggla on the grassy part of the field, he can’t make the play. Bases now loaded. Uh-oh, twice. How many times this season, I think to myself, will the Marlins be foiled by the weak defense an infield of Cantu, Uggla, and Bonifacio bring. Not gold gloves, any of them. Later on that.

Anyway, the next batter, a backup on the Nats, is Josh Willingham from Alabama, and a hero here in Miami, where he has played his entire career. He is known as The Hammer, and he pummels a shot down the line, but it is just foul. Fouls off a couple more, but I am thinking I will miss this hard nosed young kid who has been hampered by injury the last season and a half. I do not see him riding the pine in Natsville. He is just too good, too consistent, and has too much pop in his bat. But they went out and signed two stronger twins in Kearns and Dunn, and the Hammer can't play center. So he is on the bench, and it makes little sense.

The Nationals have overstocked on outfielders. Forget Willie Harris as a speester backup. They have Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge and the athleticism of Justin Maxwell, a real star in the making in the minors. The Nats have overindulged and by so doing from a fantasy standpoint, reduced the statistical value of all six players. So some fantasy owner with patience will score with one of them But on this, the third day of the season, no telling who. Maybe you dump them now and get what you can get. In real life, benching a young active star plays with his head. If you have a power stroke, you need to be in there day after day to keep your timing. I digress, though. Back to the game. Willingham does not get redemption against the Marlins. Lindstrom instead gets his second strikeout.

It is now up to Adam Dunn, the game’s most consistent slugger, 40 HR’s a year five years in a row, the last player to do that probably Hall of Famer Duke Snider in the 1950’s. But Dunn sees nothing near the plate, and is walked on six pitches. A run is in; it is now 6-4, the bases still loaded.

Austin Kearns steps into the box and laces a frozen rope into left field over the shortstop’s head. The crack of the bat made the small crowd wince. Brett Carroll dives, stretches, every limb in his body reaching to catch the sinking liner. The game was about to be tied on a two run single, and if it gets past a diving Brent Carroll, the game is lost.

There is no way he is going to catch this ball. The speed of his body carries him over the top of his glove and the ball. You can't see. Did he hols on? The umpires say yes, he raises the glove, the ball is still in it and the game is over. The fans celebrate in the Miami sun. I am one of them. I do too.

Not a sweet outing for Lindstrom. Every shot hit off him was a rocket. Every other ball thrown was out of the strike zone. Worse for Miller, no control and bullets hit off of him.

Fantasy fans reading the box score tonite will see the game differently tonite. They will see that Andrew Miller chalked up his first hold and Matt Lindstrom his first save. Their coaches and managers may see things in a different light, unless they too, of course, have a fantasy team.

Huston Street Wins a Permanent Job as Temporary Closer

Huston Street was officially named the Rockies' closer on Thursday afternoon. So what, is there such a thing as an official closer anymore if you are not K Rod or Mariano?

Whether it is Jason Isringhausen or Troy Percival or Eric Gagne, though, it does not matter how good you once were. Baseball is a sport where they measure you by what you can do now, not what you did yesterday. Which explains why Gary Sheffield, problem child, is looking for a job.

Bottom line is what fantasy writers tell you is correct. Closers are the riskiest of bids. I have won 5 by 5 leagues without them, but punting a category is always risky. Trouble with closers is you could start off with a guy who looks like Brad Lidge in 2008 and winds up like Derrick Turnbow.

Huston Street captured the job over Manny Corpas, who had captured the job a year before from the invincible all star Brian Fuentes, who will now go to Anaheim to work his magic. Corpas will go to a set up role, but if Todd Jones could close for two years in Detroit and Brandon Lyon was successful for a season in Arizona, there is no telling that Ryan Tucker won't be a star closer for the Marlins by May. I rolled a lot of fantasy dollars on Matt Lindstrom this year, and just even dealt him for Yankee outfielder Hideki Matsui because I got tired of the red stars next to his name. But Lindstrom is going in drafts like Bobby Jenks because of a one month run last September. There is no loyalty for closers. I think it is a poker game, and the more jittery the manager, the less chance they stay with one guy.

Fantasy owners who have the most time off real work and instead can work the waiver wires will find the next Joel Hanrahan and pick up 25 saves this year from an unheralded, unknown closer. It happened to me one season with Tyler Walker when Rob Nen went down. It can happen to you tomorrow if you are sitting on Cory Wade and something happens to John Broxton who only got his job cause something happened to Mr. Saito. If you are in a league with a deep reserve list, stocking set up men may be a prudent use of your stash.

I can't think of a riskier way to waste fantasy dollars than spending them on closers.

Said Huston Street today "This is what I came to camp to accomplish and it's a role I feel comfortable with. There is a lot of responsibility that goes along with it," Street said. "My teammates should expect me to not only get the job done but be prepared to get the job done."

He's a safe bet to rack up a good amount of saves, if he can stay healthy, which he was not always in Oakland. And it is not Corpas breathing down his neck, it is every manager who has to go to the media and explain after the game how a closer blew it. But it happens every nite. Baseball is perfect at being imperfect. To replicate a season like Lidge had last year or Gagne a few years ago is a fantasy in itself. And how did Lidge even wind up in Philly after being so great in Houston? Only, with a little help from Albert Pujols, he had lost it there.