That Time of Year
If your fantasy team is in 15th place in a 20 team league, it is time to take stock.
You protected Brandon Webb and thought you had a Cy Young candidate. You wound up with an arm injury after one start.
You traded for Brad Lidge and thought you got the Mariano Rivera of saves. Instead, you wound up with a river of excuses, from poor mechanics to bad knees.
You thought you had the next Hunter Pence or Corey Hart in Cameron Maybin and you wound up with the next Corey Sullivan.
You thought Gavin Floyd at a buck was the goose with the golden egg and he has done nothing but lay them.
You kept Uggla as a slugging second baseman and he wound up as a slug with an under .200 average.
Your team looked so good on paper. Then baseball happened.
It is time to respond, redact, and redo. No one is sacred. Everyone is dispensable. Rebuild.
You can help plan your fantasy future by anticipating what the real teams are going to do.
You have to understand that in Cleveland they are clamoring for Matt La Porta, in San Francisco for Jesus Guzman or Nate Scherholz, in Baltimore for Nolan Reimold. And in cities that are not winning, the elder statesman, even if like Brian Giles and Randy Winn, they batted 300 last season, they are toast. They will be moved and replaced by younger prospects, and the older guys will be reduced to pinch hitters on pennant contenders.
This year it will be a David Delluchi. Last year it was Brad Wilkerson. But time comes to an end to all the Geoffrey Jenkins and Jhonny Gomeses. They get passed by, by the younger rookie. Cliff Floyd might find himself somewhere other than a DL, but he is no longer a realistic fantasy option. Nor is Jesse Barfield, Andy Marte, or a half dozen other one time can’t miss prospects. Time has passed by the Jason Bottses of the world. It happens fast. Felix Pie was untouchable in fantasy last year. This year he is for another reason. No one wants to touch him. Ian Kennedy, anyone?
Sad, but true. So what do you do as a fantasy player? Project who will get a chance, which team thinks they can win, and don’t be afraid to deal for strength in teams that will need help today. If the Padres are going to move Peavy for a Dodger stud, it is because they are going to give that Dodger stud the ball.
Chad Tracy has been a bust coming back from his year long injury. Tony Clark is a stopgap already disabled. The director of player management has become their new field manager. The team is losing and not scoring. So Josh Whitesell is crushing the ball in triple a, and he will get a chance to do the same in Arizona.
The Reds have had to deal with the streakiness and inconsistency of Edwin Encarnacion in the past. They do not want to again. He goes on the DL, and yes this kid Adam Rosales has a chance to replace him. So too has Kevin Kouzmanoff worn out a welcome in San Diego. It is significant they are talking about promoting their star prospect Kyle Blanks to LF at Triple A, because it opens up third base for Chase Headley, his natural position. It makes Kouzmanoff expendable.
The Indians gave up the franchise to get Matt La Porta. By season’s end, with the Tribe out of the running, La Porta will be in the lineup everyday. Dellucci will be pinch hitting in Anaheim. Same in Milwaukee. Bill Hall will become Bill Hall. The call will be to Matt Gamel.
As a fantasy owner, you may want to avoid a Phil Hughes whose development New York cannot afford to endure if it costs them a pennant. They will trade away the Kazmirs and the Karstens and anyone else that cannot help them win right here right now. They have proved it in the past. They will do it in the present. Both NY franchises. And their guys are always overly hyped. So be careful.
But in Chicago, with a guy who likes vets as Piniella does, don’t expect a bulging disk to take Derek Lee out of the lineup. Not Micah Hoffpauir or anyone else. And Jeff Samardizija or whatever, may never crack the rotation. But they can afford to let a Luke Hochvear get a dozen starts in Kansas City. They can afford to give the Kia Kahluaha kid the bat and deal Ryan Shealy. Mr. Shealy is no longer the young stud who was going to soar in the Rockie Sky. Neither is Joe Koshansky.
The point I am making is that teams are fluid in their movement. Last year, everyone wanted Alejandro De Aza in Marlinville. He is hitting .340 in the minors today. May be better than Cameron Maybin. No one cares. He is yesterday’s news. So the thing to do is if you are rebuilding is to find tomorrow’s news, but be sensible. Time passes guys by right away. I don't care whether the Reds play Laynce Nix or Chris Dickerson in the outfield, neither is the next Eric Davis. Those stars do not shine yearly. They come once in a blue moon, despite the minor league hype.
Yes, Jose Tabata is a prospect, but a young one, hardly dominating, and out for 8 weeks with an injury. Andrew McCutcheon has not torn up triple A either, but he is more of a prospect than Brandon Moss, whose days are numbered. Congratulations to Bobby Cox, who liked so much Jordan Schaffer the Braves dealt Josh Anderson. But Schaffer has not had an rbi in a month, can’t hit a major league fastball, and is striking out at a rate greater than Cameron Maybin. You know what, if the Braves are contending, they can only ride Jordan so much longer. So maybe if you are a fantasy buff, you make a play for Maybin or Schaffer when their stock is low. You deal an outfielder whose numbers are steady but will not help you at all right now, and line up a prospect, who may help you tomorrow. He could become Felix Pie, your league will scream, and no Dexter Fowler is not worth Aubrey Huff but those are the kinds of deals May will bring.
Manny Ramirez could get you a Travis Snider and Nolan Reimold and thirty dollars of next year’s drafting money to pick up Vernon Wells. If you are out of the running, how do you not make the play for the younger high ceiling prospects? Just line up the realities against the fantasies. If your team is in the running, sure go take a flyer on Adrian Beltre and Andruw Jones for Manny today. But if you are not in the running, you have just traded a real blue chip who could land you a young Zack Greinke for a rusted slug.
If your fantasy team is in 15th place in a 20 team league, it is time to take stock.
You protected Brandon Webb and thought you had a Cy Young candidate. You wound up with an arm injury after one start.
You traded for Brad Lidge and thought you got the Mariano Rivera of saves. Instead, you wound up with a river of excuses, from poor mechanics to bad knees.
You thought you had the next Hunter Pence or Corey Hart in Cameron Maybin and you wound up with the next Corey Sullivan.
You thought Gavin Floyd at a buck was the goose with the golden egg and he has done nothing but lay them.
You kept Uggla as a slugging second baseman and he wound up as a slug with an under .200 average.
Your team looked so good on paper. Then baseball happened.
It is time to respond, redact, and redo. No one is sacred. Everyone is dispensable. Rebuild.
You can help plan your fantasy future by anticipating what the real teams are going to do.
You have to understand that in Cleveland they are clamoring for Matt La Porta, in San Francisco for Jesus Guzman or Nate Scherholz, in Baltimore for Nolan Reimold. And in cities that are not winning, the elder statesman, even if like Brian Giles and Randy Winn, they batted 300 last season, they are toast. They will be moved and replaced by younger prospects, and the older guys will be reduced to pinch hitters on pennant contenders.
This year it will be a David Delluchi. Last year it was Brad Wilkerson. But time comes to an end to all the Geoffrey Jenkins and Jhonny Gomeses. They get passed by, by the younger rookie. Cliff Floyd might find himself somewhere other than a DL, but he is no longer a realistic fantasy option. Nor is Jesse Barfield, Andy Marte, or a half dozen other one time can’t miss prospects. Time has passed by the Jason Bottses of the world. It happens fast. Felix Pie was untouchable in fantasy last year. This year he is for another reason. No one wants to touch him. Ian Kennedy, anyone?
Sad, but true. So what do you do as a fantasy player? Project who will get a chance, which team thinks they can win, and don’t be afraid to deal for strength in teams that will need help today. If the Padres are going to move Peavy for a Dodger stud, it is because they are going to give that Dodger stud the ball.
Chad Tracy has been a bust coming back from his year long injury. Tony Clark is a stopgap already disabled. The director of player management has become their new field manager. The team is losing and not scoring. So Josh Whitesell is crushing the ball in triple a, and he will get a chance to do the same in Arizona.
The Reds have had to deal with the streakiness and inconsistency of Edwin Encarnacion in the past. They do not want to again. He goes on the DL, and yes this kid Adam Rosales has a chance to replace him. So too has Kevin Kouzmanoff worn out a welcome in San Diego. It is significant they are talking about promoting their star prospect Kyle Blanks to LF at Triple A, because it opens up third base for Chase Headley, his natural position. It makes Kouzmanoff expendable.
The Indians gave up the franchise to get Matt La Porta. By season’s end, with the Tribe out of the running, La Porta will be in the lineup everyday. Dellucci will be pinch hitting in Anaheim. Same in Milwaukee. Bill Hall will become Bill Hall. The call will be to Matt Gamel.
As a fantasy owner, you may want to avoid a Phil Hughes whose development New York cannot afford to endure if it costs them a pennant. They will trade away the Kazmirs and the Karstens and anyone else that cannot help them win right here right now. They have proved it in the past. They will do it in the present. Both NY franchises. And their guys are always overly hyped. So be careful.
But in Chicago, with a guy who likes vets as Piniella does, don’t expect a bulging disk to take Derek Lee out of the lineup. Not Micah Hoffpauir or anyone else. And Jeff Samardizija or whatever, may never crack the rotation. But they can afford to let a Luke Hochvear get a dozen starts in Kansas City. They can afford to give the Kia Kahluaha kid the bat and deal Ryan Shealy. Mr. Shealy is no longer the young stud who was going to soar in the Rockie Sky. Neither is Joe Koshansky.
The point I am making is that teams are fluid in their movement. Last year, everyone wanted Alejandro De Aza in Marlinville. He is hitting .340 in the minors today. May be better than Cameron Maybin. No one cares. He is yesterday’s news. So the thing to do is if you are rebuilding is to find tomorrow’s news, but be sensible. Time passes guys by right away. I don't care whether the Reds play Laynce Nix or Chris Dickerson in the outfield, neither is the next Eric Davis. Those stars do not shine yearly. They come once in a blue moon, despite the minor league hype.
Yes, Jose Tabata is a prospect, but a young one, hardly dominating, and out for 8 weeks with an injury. Andrew McCutcheon has not torn up triple A either, but he is more of a prospect than Brandon Moss, whose days are numbered. Congratulations to Bobby Cox, who liked so much Jordan Schaffer the Braves dealt Josh Anderson. But Schaffer has not had an rbi in a month, can’t hit a major league fastball, and is striking out at a rate greater than Cameron Maybin. You know what, if the Braves are contending, they can only ride Jordan so much longer. So maybe if you are a fantasy buff, you make a play for Maybin or Schaffer when their stock is low. You deal an outfielder whose numbers are steady but will not help you at all right now, and line up a prospect, who may help you tomorrow. He could become Felix Pie, your league will scream, and no Dexter Fowler is not worth Aubrey Huff but those are the kinds of deals May will bring.
Manny Ramirez could get you a Travis Snider and Nolan Reimold and thirty dollars of next year’s drafting money to pick up Vernon Wells. If you are out of the running, how do you not make the play for the younger high ceiling prospects? Just line up the realities against the fantasies. If your team is in the running, sure go take a flyer on Adrian Beltre and Andruw Jones for Manny today. But if you are not in the running, you have just traded a real blue chip who could land you a young Zack Greinke for a rusted slug.
Look at the market the kid is playing in and the chances he will get to succeed or fail, particularly how long a team can carry him if he sucks, as Schaffer and Maybin have been doing. That won’t play on Broadway. Note how many times in the last week Bret Gardner is sitting in the Bronx; how many starts a Melky Cabrera they did not want is getting. Hey, if Randy Winn or Brian Giles become available, they wind up in the Bronx, and Gardner on the pine. The Mets gave up Mike Carp to win with JJ Putz. Seattle needs a corner guy. Bryan LaHair was not the answer. Carp can be, but only after Branyan reaches Earth and is dealt when Seattle recognizes he is on a little roll.
I can’t believe the Angels struggling rotation has not dealt Brandon Wood to the Pirates for a pitcher yet, but there is a natural fit for a star like Wood to finally get some bats, paired next to Andy La Roche in Pittsburgh. But for some reason Wood never gets a break, and each time he is called up and sent down, his stock falls. Ask Dallas McPherson.
One final note. Notice how Denard Span supplanted Carlos Gomez in Minnesota. How despite offering Gary Matthews a five year deal, the very next season the Angels signed Hunter and were willing to bench Matthews. The Dodgers did the same to Juan Pierre. The White Sox gave Centerfield to everyone but the hot dog vendor, and after going through all of them, wound up with Scott Podsednick back their this week. Don’t be afraid to stack on a competitive team a Juan Pierre type, who when the main star goes down, is bound to come up and play. The Dodgers are sitting on a powder keg of injuries with ODog, Furcal and Blake in the infield. Man, I want to sock away Blake DeWitt.
The best advice is to play the roll, and understand Lance Berkman and BJ Upton and Alexei Ramirez get better. CC started off real slow last year and teams dealt him too quickly. But if you are in 18th place with a $42 dollar pitcher, Go with the flow. But go in the know. You have to learn the market, know the players, and anticipate where the teams are headed. If time and injuries do not catch up with Carl Pavano, the league will. But he gets a chance to start again and again in Cleveland, while he would not in New York. No one would trade Phil Hughes for Pavano, but if you are in the hunt, who is more likely to get you wins in 2009? Think about it.
I can’t believe the Angels struggling rotation has not dealt Brandon Wood to the Pirates for a pitcher yet, but there is a natural fit for a star like Wood to finally get some bats, paired next to Andy La Roche in Pittsburgh. But for some reason Wood never gets a break, and each time he is called up and sent down, his stock falls. Ask Dallas McPherson.
One final note. Notice how Denard Span supplanted Carlos Gomez in Minnesota. How despite offering Gary Matthews a five year deal, the very next season the Angels signed Hunter and were willing to bench Matthews. The Dodgers did the same to Juan Pierre. The White Sox gave Centerfield to everyone but the hot dog vendor, and after going through all of them, wound up with Scott Podsednick back their this week. Don’t be afraid to stack on a competitive team a Juan Pierre type, who when the main star goes down, is bound to come up and play. The Dodgers are sitting on a powder keg of injuries with ODog, Furcal and Blake in the infield. Man, I want to sock away Blake DeWitt.
The best advice is to play the roll, and understand Lance Berkman and BJ Upton and Alexei Ramirez get better. CC started off real slow last year and teams dealt him too quickly. But if you are in 18th place with a $42 dollar pitcher, Go with the flow. But go in the know. You have to learn the market, know the players, and anticipate where the teams are headed. If time and injuries do not catch up with Carl Pavano, the league will. But he gets a chance to start again and again in Cleveland, while he would not in New York. No one would trade Phil Hughes for Pavano, but if you are in the hunt, who is more likely to get you wins in 2009? Think about it.
So here are the rules:
1. Water seeks its own level. If someone wants to deal Grady Sizemore because he is hitting 225, give up the farm to get him.
2. If you have an old vet on a losing team, he will do better and so can you. Cut your losses and let him go.
3. If you have a young prospect in a contending city, understand he is not going to get the same chance a kid in a lesser market gets. If you have a contending team, don't be afraid to add an Aubrey Huff and his 30 HR pop for what Jordan Schaffer may become. If you are not contending, don't be afraid to head the other way.
4. Success in the minors does not mean success in the majors, especially for pitchers, and more importantly for batters in the Pacific Coast Leagues, where your high school coach could hit 25 hrs.
5. If you are in a league with reserves, contracts, and minors, start stacking away arms at double aa and triple aa that teams will hunger for come the Fall. But don't be afraid to deal them right away. If someone is offering you Roy Oswalt for Luke Hochvear, and you are contending, how do you not go for it?
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