Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Disabled List Contains Few Surprises So Far


No Surprises as the DL List Stacks Up

A running joke in one league had a pool predicting how soon Milton Bradley would get hurt in a Cubs uniform. The under 7 days card beat the over. But is it real surprising that the list has in less than two weeks expanded to now include Eric Chavez, looking for X Rays for his tendinitis? Too bad, after a slow spring but very hot start in Oakland. Is it Jack Hanrahan time yet? Well, a good fantasy backup and maybe not a bad stash.

Chris Carpenter may win the Cy Young after pitching 13 scoreless innings to start the season but his rib strain last nite caused him to leave the game and may send him to the DL, where he will be joined no doubt soon by Ron Belliard, who seems to be inclined to finish his career hurt. But they will not be alone. I see that Nomar Garciaparra, one nite after homering, and keeping young rookie prospect Daric Barton in the minors, could not play last nite. Calf tightness. Cristian Guzman, as good as he is, won't be far behind.

And I wish the Dodgers went with Blake DeWitt instead of Casey Blake, but I just traded for Blake in one league, cause well, damnit, team after team seems to go with the dead veteran instead of the live prospects. Why, I don’t know. Bring up a young Travis Snider or Dexter Fowler and your team is electric and exciting. Who would rather not see Cameron Maybin in Centerfield for the Marlins over a reincarnation of Mark Kotsay, now recovering from back surgery? And you just wait a few weeks, and those rookies will find their way to the bigs as the GMS find their senses and realize the future is not in lining up a row of Jamie Moyers and Livan Hernandezes to anchor your rotation, but in bringing up the Trevor Cahills and Brett Andersons. Billy Martin tried that with the A’s in the early 1980’s and won a pennant. Blew out a lot of arms, too.

Baseball is a sport for young men, but there are lots of seasoned veterans who know how to play the game that hang on for dear life, because like Roy Campanella once said, ‘you gotta have a lot of little boy in you to play this game.’ Look, last season Melvin Mora had an unreal second half, hitting almost .375 and he was drafted a lot in fantasy ball this spring. But is it a real surprise that after two weeks he too is going on the DL with his newest injury. I knew Wigginton would have value in Baltimore. He is a 25hr/80 RBI guy that signed with a team whose third baseman is always hurt. Hank Blalock is back in the lineup too, after a red hot start, but is it not a caution sign to everyone that he already missed a game or two with a neck strain?

The bottom line is this. When drafting fantasy players, stay with guys you know are healthy. You roll the dice on too many Chris Carpenters, and your team is doomed. Use the older vets as the backups to prime the pump, not the starters to ignite your squad. Come July, the Dodgers will be dying to bring up Blake DeWitt, whose fantasy value will soar, and I will be holding Casey Blake, whose three year contract and salary the Dodgers will be looking to dump on a pennant contending team looking to add a corner guy off the bench. And he will have no trade value. So why did I do that again?

And Geoff Jenkins and Richie Sexson and Jim Edmonds will all be looking for jobs, and their love for the sport will carry them to an Independent League in Minnesota, but most will have to come to recognize their day in the sun has passed.

The saddest DL story thus far has De Wayne Wise going on the shelf with a broken shoulder while making a phenomenal diving catch. Here is a guy who moved into a regular spot in the White Sox lineup last summer when Nick Swisher fell flat on his face. Well now the Sox are forced to go with two guys they don’t want, Jerry Owens and Brian Anderson, the latter a prospect who failed last season.
If you are a forward thinking owner, and you know the way Ozzie Guillen likes to play, this could be the time for the Sox to make a move on Juan Pierre. And since he went for next to no bucks in most fantasy leagues this season, he could turn into one huge steal, thanks to the dive Wise took.
And I would not bet the farm on Julio Lugo coming back and leading the Red Sox. I was very disappointed to hear about Jed Lowrie, who I labeled a break out year candidate in an earlier post. Had no clue about his injury. But I think the Sox may trade for a shortstop, and guys like Michael Young had been available over the winter, so we will see what shakes out there. The Sox once had a great SS prospect, but they won a World Series by trading him away to get Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. You may remember who that young man was. Goes by the name of Hanley Ramirez.

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