'Go Cubs Go' Will Not Be Heard Enough this Summer

Nothing is quite as much fun as watching a Cubs game at WRigley Field, and even as a Dodgers fan, it was a spectacular day in the Windy City this afternoon.

Ryan Dempster was dominating, the Boys in Blue were flat, and Larry King, a baseball fan from Miami, sung Take Me Out to the Ball Game. Wish I was there. Wish I could have stopped by Harry Caray's and had a brew.

Celebrated the day with a fantasy trade, dealing D Wayne Wise and an A's prospect for Hideki Okajima and some holds. Big Mike D from Chicago was the taker, and he is a player who plays for fun and trades a lot. I had Dempster in one league and traded him for James Loney, needing obp and b.a. I threw in Griffey, who has had a few HRS but all but established that this is his last year. Dempster has been inconsistent, but shows clear signs that he will win 14=15 games for Chicago. You would think that with the Big Z, Harden, and Dempster, the Cubs should get to the playoffs. Not to mention Lilly is a picture of perfection and consistency. Solid starters through and through.

But times change and so too must the teams. D Lee is not the guy who powered the Marlins to the World Series in 2003. That was years ago. The Cubs search for a CF never worked out, and while other teams have discovered a Markakis and an Adam Jones, the Cubs got stuck with Felix Pie. And A Ram has been hurt, hasn't he? Age catching up with him.

De Rosa had an awesome season but they dealt him, why I don't know. Theriot will be solid, but they need more. Going with Gregg as closer but Wood is gone. Soto's bat has been less than so so at the plate. The Cubs just ain't where they should be. The Cubs just are not as good as they were last year, and they did not win then.

Disappointing. No city deserves to win more. No city wants to win more. But calling upon Bobby Scales and Jake Fox, both journeyman, won't cut it. Friday nite, seeing the game on the line, with two rookies, one 30, one 26, did not make for dreams. Scales did have a pinch hit HR, but where are the Cubs rookies? Who is moving in to excite the crowd?

Teams generate fans and excitement with new blood. The Cubs have a great player in Reed Johnson who will have an occasional great day and make a regular great catch. But Fukodome has been blah, Soriano has not been clutch, and centerfield is lacking. I don't know, but there is something I don't like about the team the way it is set up.

If they could put Soriano at second, land a centerfielder, get youthful strength at the corners, have a pitching staff that was more reliable, maybe I would have more faith. But I think there is going to be a disappointing summer afoot at Wrigley. Doesn't matter, it's one great place to watch a game, fantasy or reality.

Cafardo Says Dealer's Choice on Trades

Heavy trade action may be in the cards, a good column by Nick Cafardo, who is able to pinch blog while I continue to recover from a lengthy bout with the flu, here is an interesting column from boston.com

By Nick Cafardo May 24, 2009

When Jake Peavy rejected a chance to join the White Sox, teams such as the Cubs, Brewers, Phillies, Mets, and Dodgers breathed sighs of relief, hoping that the prize pitcher will instead hand-pick the National League team that suits him best.

While that deal was vetoed by the former NL Cy Young Award winner, it kicked off what should be an active trading period between now and the July 31 deadline.

Normally, teams are focused on the amateur draft at this time, but major league scouts are out there in full force, inquiring about what teams are willing to part with.

Most baseball people feel a Peavy deal will be made because the Padres need to move the guaranteed $50 million-$60 million remaining on his deal. The big question becomes which team can offer San Diego general manager Kevin Towers a substantial package of prospects - as the White Sox did.

The Brewers took a bold step last season when they threw payroll concerns out the window and traded for CC Sabathia, who led them to a playoff berth. The Brewers left themselves some wiggle room this season by electing not to pursue a big-name pitcher, adding only journeyman Braden Looper.

Getting Peavy is complicated, though, because you have to be willing to come up with the package of players and pay out the salary. In some cases, teams may have to commit to picking up a $22 million option in 2013.

The Red Sox always made the most sense for Peavy because they have the prospects, they have the money, and the righthander likes Boston. But they are the team that needs him the least.

The Cubs' new owner, Ameritrade guru Tom Ricketts, should have the $900 million sale in place within a month. When and if that happens, the Cubs could reenter the picture for Peavy.

While the White Sox and Padres are open to deals (the Padres would love to move Brian Giles), a major league evaluator said last week that the A's and Indians also appear to be "wide open" for business, as could be the Rockies and Mariners.

A fire sale could be in the offing in Cleveland, with attractive players such as last year's Cy Young winner, Cliff Lee, who will be a free agent after next season; Mark DeRosa, who would bring a top reliever and has been coveted by multiple teams; and the big prize, catcher Victor Martinez, who is said to be available for a blockbuster package. The Indians also would surely move underachieving shortstop Jhonny Peralta.

The A's could soon field inquiries on outfielder Matt Holliday, who is picking up his hitting, though he simply hasn't taken to the expanse of McAfee Coliseum. The A's would also move Jason Giambi and/or Orlando Cabrera after June 15, the date when free agents signed during the offseason can be traded.

"It seems like everyone is looking for pitching with the exception of the Red Sox," said an American League evaluator. "If it's true that Brad Penny becomes available, they'll have some interested parties in him as long as he's showing he's over his shoulder problems."

The Mariners got off to a decent start, but as their season turns into what we thought it would be - lousy - they'll make some of their more attractive players available. Guys like the struggling Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn, Erik Bedard, and Miguel Batista, who are all in the final year of their contracts, could be had. Batista may fit in Tampa, which is looking for another bullpen piece.

The Mariners and Pirates reportedly were discussing a Jack Wilson-for-Yuni Betancourt deal last week, until it fell through. Wilson, the slick-fielding Pirates shortstop, would be a viable addition for a contending team needing help at that position. That team could be the Cardinals, who are not pleased with Khalil Greene.

The Dodgers could run away with the West if they land Peavy, and if Manny Ramírez returns as a good citizen and infuses life into the lineup, but many of their "prospects" are in the majors.

The Rockies could be dealing with a new manager soon, but reliever Huston Street, third baseman Garrett Atkins, first baseman Todd Helton (who would have to approve a deal), and outfielder Brad Hawpe could all be available.

The Nationals may move first baseman Nick Johnson, who is in the final year of his three-year deal, and having a very good season. The Orioles could attract suitors for Aubrey Huff and relievers George Sherrill and Danys Baez.

The trade season has just begun.

Rantin and Ravin on Fantasy vs. Reality

That Time of Year

If your fantasy team is in 15th place in a 20 team league, it is time to take stock.

You protected Brandon Webb and thought you had a Cy Young candidate. You wound up with an arm injury after one start.

You traded for Brad Lidge and thought you got the Mariano Rivera of saves. Instead, you wound up with a river of excuses, from poor mechanics to bad knees.

You thought you had the next Hunter Pence or Corey Hart in Cameron Maybin and you wound up with the next Corey Sullivan.

You thought Gavin Floyd at a buck was the goose with the golden egg and he has done nothing but lay them.

You kept Uggla as a slugging second baseman and he wound up as a slug with an under .200 average.

Your team looked so good on paper. Then baseball happened.

It is time to respond, redact, and redo. No one is sacred. Everyone is dispensable. Rebuild.

You can help plan your fantasy future by anticipating what the real teams are going to do.

You have to understand that in Cleveland they are clamoring for Matt La Porta, in San Francisco for Jesus Guzman or Nate Scherholz, in Baltimore for Nolan Reimold. And in cities that are not winning, the elder statesman, even if like Brian Giles and Randy Winn, they batted 300 last season, they are toast. They will be moved and replaced by younger prospects, and the older guys will be reduced to pinch hitters on pennant contenders.

This year it will be a David Delluchi. Last year it was Brad Wilkerson. But time comes to an end to all the Geoffrey Jenkins and Jhonny Gomeses. They get passed by, by the younger rookie. Cliff Floyd might find himself somewhere other than a DL, but he is no longer a realistic fantasy option. Nor is Jesse Barfield, Andy Marte, or a half dozen other one time can’t miss prospects. Time has passed by the Jason Bottses of the world. It happens fast. Felix Pie was untouchable in fantasy last year. This year he is for another reason. No one wants to touch him. Ian Kennedy, anyone?

Sad, but true. So what do you do as a fantasy player? Project who will get a chance, which team thinks they can win, and don’t be afraid to deal for strength in teams that will need help today. If the Padres are going to move Peavy for a Dodger stud, it is because they are going to give that Dodger stud the ball.

Chad Tracy has been a bust coming back from his year long injury. Tony Clark is a stopgap already disabled. The director of player management has become their new field manager. The team is losing and not scoring. So Josh Whitesell is crushing the ball in triple a, and he will get a chance to do the same in Arizona.

The Reds have had to deal with the streakiness and inconsistency of Edwin Encarnacion in the past. They do not want to again. He goes on the DL, and yes this kid Adam Rosales has a chance to replace him. So too has Kevin Kouzmanoff worn out a welcome in San Diego. It is significant they are talking about promoting their star prospect Kyle Blanks to LF at Triple A, because it opens up third base for Chase Headley, his natural position. It makes Kouzmanoff expendable.

The Indians gave up the franchise to get Matt La Porta. By season’s end, with the Tribe out of the running, La Porta will be in the lineup everyday. Dellucci will be pinch hitting in Anaheim. Same in Milwaukee. Bill Hall will become Bill Hall. The call will be to Matt Gamel.

As a fantasy owner, you may want to avoid a Phil Hughes whose development New York cannot afford to endure if it costs them a pennant. They will trade away the Kazmirs and the Karstens and anyone else that cannot help them win right here right now. They have proved it in the past. They will do it in the present. Both NY franchises. And their guys are always overly hyped. So be careful.

But in Chicago, with a guy who likes vets as Piniella does, don’t expect a bulging disk to take Derek Lee out of the lineup. Not Micah Hoffpauir or anyone else. And Jeff Samardizija or whatever, may never crack the rotation. But they can afford to let a Luke Hochvear get a dozen starts in Kansas City. They can afford to give the Kia Kahluaha kid the bat and deal Ryan Shealy. Mr. Shealy is no longer the young stud who was going to soar in the Rockie Sky. Neither is Joe Koshansky.

The point I am making is that teams are fluid in their movement. Last year, everyone wanted Alejandro De Aza in Marlinville. He is hitting .340 in the minors today. May be better than Cameron Maybin. No one cares. He is yesterday’s news. So the thing to do is if you are rebuilding is to find tomorrow’s news, but be sensible. Time passes guys by right away. I don't care whether the Reds play Laynce Nix or Chris Dickerson in the outfield, neither is the next Eric Davis. Those stars do not shine yearly. They come once in a blue moon, despite the minor league hype.

Yes, Jose Tabata is a prospect, but a young one, hardly dominating, and out for 8 weeks with an injury. Andrew McCutcheon has not torn up triple A either, but he is more of a prospect than Brandon Moss, whose days are numbered. Congratulations to Bobby Cox, who liked so much Jordan Schaffer the Braves dealt Josh Anderson. But Schaffer has not had an rbi in a month, can’t hit a major league fastball, and is striking out at a rate greater than Cameron Maybin. You know what, if the Braves are contending, they can only ride Jordan so much longer. So maybe if you are a fantasy buff, you make a play for Maybin or Schaffer when their stock is low. You deal an outfielder whose numbers are steady but will not help you at all right now, and line up a prospect, who may help you tomorrow. He could become Felix Pie, your league will scream, and no Dexter Fowler is not worth Aubrey Huff but those are the kinds of deals May will bring.

Manny Ramirez could get you a Travis Snider and Nolan Reimold and thirty dollars of next year’s drafting money to pick up Vernon Wells. If you are out of the running, how do you not make the play for the younger high ceiling prospects? Just line up the realities against the fantasies. If your team is in the running, sure go take a flyer on Adrian Beltre and Andruw Jones for Manny today. But if you are not in the running, you have just traded a real blue chip who could land you a young Zack Greinke for a rusted slug.

Look at the market the kid is playing in and the chances he will get to succeed or fail, particularly how long a team can carry him if he sucks, as Schaffer and Maybin have been doing. That won’t play on Broadway. Note how many times in the last week Bret Gardner is sitting in the Bronx; how many starts a Melky Cabrera they did not want is getting. Hey, if Randy Winn or Brian Giles become available, they wind up in the Bronx, and Gardner on the pine. The Mets gave up Mike Carp to win with JJ Putz. Seattle needs a corner guy. Bryan LaHair was not the answer. Carp can be, but only after Branyan reaches Earth and is dealt when Seattle recognizes he is on a little roll.

I can’t believe the Angels struggling rotation has not dealt Brandon Wood to the Pirates for a pitcher yet, but there is a natural fit for a star like Wood to finally get some bats, paired next to Andy La Roche in Pittsburgh. But for some reason Wood never gets a break, and each time he is called up and sent down, his stock falls. Ask Dallas McPherson.

One final note. Notice how Denard Span supplanted Carlos Gomez in Minnesota. How despite offering Gary Matthews a five year deal, the very next season the Angels signed Hunter and were willing to bench Matthews. The Dodgers did the same to Juan Pierre. The White Sox gave Centerfield to everyone but the hot dog vendor, and after going through all of them, wound up with Scott Podsednick back their this week. Don’t be afraid to stack on a competitive team a Juan Pierre type, who when the main star goes down, is bound to come up and play. The Dodgers are sitting on a powder keg of injuries with ODog, Furcal and Blake in the infield. Man, I want to sock away Blake DeWitt.

The best advice is to play the roll, and understand Lance Berkman and BJ Upton and Alexei Ramirez get better. CC started off real slow last year and teams dealt him too quickly. But if you are in 18th place with a $42 dollar pitcher, Go with the flow. But go in the know. You have to learn the market, know the players, and anticipate where the teams are headed. If time and injuries do not catch up with Carl Pavano, the league will. But he gets a chance to start again and again in Cleveland, while he would not in New York. No one would trade Phil Hughes for Pavano, but if you are in the hunt, who is more likely to get you wins in 2009? Think about it.

So here are the rules:

1. Water seeks its own level. If someone wants to deal Grady Sizemore because he is hitting 225, give up the farm to get him.

2. If you have an old vet on a losing team, he will do better and so can you. Cut your losses and let him go.

3. If you have a young prospect in a contending city, understand he is not going to get the same chance a kid in a lesser market gets. If you have a contending team, don't be afraid to add an Aubrey Huff and his 30 HR pop for what Jordan Schaffer may become. If you are not contending, don't be afraid to head the other way.

4. Success in the minors does not mean success in the majors, especially for pitchers, and more importantly for batters in the Pacific Coast Leagues, where your high school coach could hit 25 hrs.

5. If you are in a league with reserves, contracts, and minors, start stacking away arms at double aa and triple aa that teams will hunger for come the Fall. But don't be afraid to deal them right away. If someone is offering you Roy Oswalt for Luke Hochvear, and you are contending, how do you not go for it?

Niese Looked Real Nice for the Mets Tonite

Oh, this is your classic fantasy blog.

I kept this guy in three leagues this winter. I was positive he would make the Mets rotation.

Then he was shelled all Spring and torched at triple AAA. The Mets said they were going to demote him even. But I held onto Jon Niese, at least until May 4, the day the Mets announced they were calling him up.

Wait a second, I said, impetuously, if they are going to announce that a 41 year old Japanese retread was starting ahead of him, or another version of Casey Fossum, am I going to activate one of these rookie starters for a Jeremy Sowers or Graham Taylor start of 3 innings, 9 runs, and 7 walks. I could not decide what to do. Screw it, I released this guy I protected all winter from two of my four daily leagues.

And I watched him tonite. 6 innings. 7 hits. 5 k's great control, and I am sitting here blogging for the first time in a week saying, ' Damn, how could I have let this guy go?'

No he is not Sandy Koufax but hey it is the Mets, he showed last Fall he can pitch at this level, hurled a shutout in one game, so he is a little inconsistent now and then. Mike Pelfrey will be too. But there is a reason he was number three in the Mets prospect chart by Baseball America, a reason why I kept him, and they all went out the window last week, why? Because I was impetuously dissatisfied with a slow start in Triple AAA?

I see him winning a dozen games for the Mets between now and September. I see him becoming part of their rotation. And I see him on other teams in two of my fantasy leagues where I should have trusted my feelings like Yoda said to Luke Skywalker.

We all make fantasy mistakes. I am making a few this year. But I think the worst mistake we all make is that we are not patient enough to let seeds grow, nurture, and mature. Maybe too it is the same with our own lives.

Look, he could be the next Homer Bailey and fail grandly, though HB has been impressive of late. The point is that sometimes you gotta hold your horses. I knew better. I should have done better. I think I am going to be kicking myself on this one. Of course, one of my curses is that when you are in thirteen leagues, well, hell, I still have him in four more........:-)

The Legal Side of the Manny Wood Mess

My Thoughts on Manny, Reality, and the Fantasy Play

First of all, it’s good to be back. I have been otherwise engaged the past week and not able to do any blogging on my legal or baseball pages. And there has certainly been news.

Here is my take on Manny the Moronic both in and out of Fantasyland.

First of all, let’s go to the reality. I am a criminal defense lawyer. When a guy gets bonded out on a drug offense, he is told he cannot use drugs. When he is put on probation, he is told he cannot use drugs. But some do, and they get caught and reprimanded, even jailed.

One of the things the courts and jurists have learned is that the drug users cannot help themselves and repeat their violations. So they try to outsmart the system repeatedly by using drugs illegally and then employing ‘masking agents’ which cover up their use in the body afterwards. But forensics and science testing being what it is, the masking agent can be chemically discovered in the bloodstream, thanks to Gary Sinise and CSI NY. So what we know is that when a ‘masking agent’ is found it is a clear indication that he may have been using at an earlier date; presumptive proof that the user may not be testing positive today, but it is only because of what he did improperly yesterday.

As a matter of fact, it is now a violation of your pre trial release or probation to test positive for a ‘masking agent’ because it suggests to the court you are using prohibited substances to begin with. The substance found in Manny’s body, a human fertility drug found in women, HCG, is one of those masking agents. It suggests then that Manny went to a doctor and was given a Hobson’s choice.

“I have been using steroids,” he must have said, and “I either have to admit it, come clean, get suspended, or hope that I can hide it with a masking agent, and scientific analysis being what it is, there is a less chance I will test positive if I use the masking agent.” So either on his own or in consultation with others he rolled the dice and lost. Don't buy into the apology. You are not getting the whole story, anymore than you did with A Rod, who clearly needed a lot more counseling before he spoke to the public.

The chemical analysis of Manny Ramirez revealed not the presence of a steroid, but the masking agent designed to cover up its use. And the Major league drug policy, like the courts, bans the masking agents because they know if they are there now, it is because of what was in your body previously. Manny knew it too, and quickly subscribed to the 50 game suspension. This may also account for the reason Manny chose to avoid signing with a team earlier; may explain that he was not only not trying to avoid Spring Training, but that he was trying to avoid the inevitable testing that would come with a signing.

Yes, he was stupid. But deceptive too. Rules, major league baseball included, have exemptions. If the testosterone he sought was clinically indicated by a physician, he could have noticed MLB in advance and communicated the need for the usage. But the need was less than legit. Somehow I am thinking the Doctor in Miami that Manny visited with knew something about the rules, and that given the number of athletes down here, MLB has a list of suggested ones, just as they have a list of those substances which are prohibited under the policy. Someone sold him a bill of goods that these masking agents worked, and not to worry. So he relied on what worked before.

Cops can't pull everyone over who is speeding either. And you don't catch every fish in the ocean. But they are out there, and sometimes you snare a big one.

So Manny the Fun Queen has done to his name what so many other superstars have done before him, tarnished it. And for such a talent, you gotta wonder why. All I can think is that they are spoiled, foolish, misled, and do not appreciate the gifts they have been given, do not grasp the rules applies to president and paupers. There is just too much of a vacuum where the brain belongs. I have no sympathy for him. I have sympathy for the sport I love, the athletes I admire, and the stain they keep putting on the field.

I think I will write about the baseball impact later. This column kind of ruined what I wanted the blog to be about. I want to write about baseball here, the bats, not the brats; the hits not the empty hats.

The D Train Tries To Get Back on Track

Well, a week of legal work has prevented me from blogging baseball or fantasy, but this is one of those feel good stories.

D Train had a little bit of Mark Fidrych in him, I think, when he landed in the Marlins dugout in 2003 from Double A. He was magical and marvelous and a fan favorite. Like Brandon Webb, he opened eyes and shook up the crowds.

Both are on the shelf now. But Brandon's trouble is physical. You can operate on that. Dontrelle seems to have lost the ability to stay within himself and his energies and passions have blown up like a balloon letting out air, spinning wildly in all directions.

We are all hoping he comes back, and is worth a fantasy shot again, of course. He can be had cheap. But do not be overly fooled by hearing he threw six innings of two run ball for the 'Harrisburg Senators.' He has a long way to go from this minor league town to a major league arena, to umps all over the strike zone and fans with less patience. But we will be rooting for the train to get back on track.

Odd though, is it not, this World Series hero, this all star, this multi million dollar salaried pitcher, quietly working things out in a small town, apart from the crowds, the awe, and the spotlight of major league baseball. Sometimes a reminder to walk barefoot in your roots is a good way to get replanted.