It has been a while since I have blogged about fantasy ball, but I find myself freshening up on players and rules as I plan for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship in Vegas this March, along with my own leagues. Looking at things I have written, leagues I have won, and many that I have lost, I have made a list of my own guidelines to share.
No two leagues are the same, but the following rules will work whether you are going into the draft just for a fill-up to finish off your team or looking to stock an entire squad.
After years and tears with good drafts and bad, I have concluded there are some fundamental rules of rotisserie baseball that must be followed to have a successful season. Some have nothing to do with baseball, but all have to do with winning.
Here they are.
First, make believe you are joining the Boy Scouts. Be prepared. There are now owners going into drafts with laptops armed with statistical histories of all the major leaguers and prospective minor leagues. Do not make the mistake of drafting from the seat of your pants. Have in your mind a grocery list. You don’t want to spend all your money before you get to the third aisle in the supermarket. And you don’t want to be the guy who is being laughed at in the last rounds of the draft scouring through the fantasy baseball guides struggling to find a player to nominate.
Second, make believe you are flying the plane. Be rested and fresh. I am stunned at how many people coming into fantasy drafts that do not realize it is mentally taxing and physically draining. If you are sitting in a chair, selecting players to put on your squad for the next six months, you don’t want to be drafting with a hangover. You do want to be alert, so eat light, hydrate yourself, and find some stretching exercises to do. An auction draft for a new team can easily take as much as 6 to 8 hours without much of a break, as long as it would take to fly to Europe. You are the pilot and your eyes have to remain open.
Third, make believe you are homeless. If you want to win, draft the best player, not necessarily one from your hometown. At the end of the day, the only numbers that count are the statistics an athlete produces, whether he does so for the overlooked Royals or the heralded Yankees. Don’t wear your fan loyalty on your sleeve in an auction, and announce to everyone at the start of the draft you are going to get Miguel Cabrera at any cost. You will. The Melky Cabreras of the world may surprise you too.
Fourth, make believe you are buying a car. Don’t underestimate reliable veterans, do not overspend on rookies, or draft too early on proteges. Go to the top 10 list of any fantasy baseball guide from 10 years ago and for every Evan Longoria you will find 10 Andy Martes. I know everyone wants to discover the next superstar, but Chipper Jones is still limping to the finish line with a good batting average, a high on base percentage and decent numbers at a thin position. I wish I had a dime for every player who overpaid for a guy they claim "they just had a feeling about" only to find out fortune telling is for carnivals.
Fifth, make believe you joined a gym. Select players who tend to stay healthy. There are only so many risks you can take on your premiere stars. Stay away from the injury prone. Spend your first picks or higher salaries on players you can count on taking the field. The fantasy baseball field graveyard is populated by hundreds of players who year after year kept on taking Mark Prior in the top rounds, or ‘took a shot’ on some guy that had a strong September.
Sixth, make believe you have a lease. Select players who have jobs at secure positions. This is why everyone is leary of closers. It is a volatile position, where the lead dog is replaced often. But when drafting, you also must be aware of whether the players you pick are likely to hold that role over the course of the season. If they are overpaid players at the end of a contract, not likely to be re-signed, or playing for a non-competitive team, your starter today could be moved to a bench role on a contender by the All Star break. You have to think about that in April when you draft.
Seventh, make believe you are abandoned on a desert island. Position scarcity matters, but there are limits. While there are only so many premier catchers or closers, don’t sell the farm for them. Whether your league allows trading or not, remember that replacing scarce positions from free agency lists or in deals is tough once the season starts. But stats are stats. If you already have five 30 home run hitters on your team, you can afford to pass on the one catcher who hits 25 homers.
Eighth, make believe you have studied for a final exam. Know your league’s scoring system. Most leagues use collective batting averages and earned run averages for scoring, so too many at bats or too many innings from a bad player can hurt you more than help you. Because those are categories which are averaged, unlike raw statistics, they are more difficult to adjust during the season. Certain power hitters will destroy your obp. If you are in a 4 by 4 league as compared to a 7 by 7, you can’t just ‘punt’ categories. You have to know your game.
Ninth, make believe you are poor. Feast on the left overs. At the end of your auction or draft, teams will get up and walk away, ignoring one dollar players and reserve picks who are a phone call, injury, or trade away from making a difference and impact that season. Having them on your reserve squad enhances your regular team’s ability to deal with injuries and move up a stud prospect into a starting role. Know your league’s rules and prepare as much for the reserve list on draft day as your starting lineup.
Tenth, make believe you are in a marathon, not a sprint. This is the most important rule of all. Stay the course. Watch, guide and caress your team as you would a puppy. Leagues are won not only on draft day but in the middle of the summer when everyone else goes on vacation, or in September when the non-contenders lose interest. When your league’s title is being decided in the ninth inning of the last game of the year, you don’t want to be kicking yourself because you forgot to move a player off the DL for two weeks and lost his homers.
If you want the trophy for real in the Fall, you have to make believe in the Spring.
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